Shudders shot through the Democratic Party after John Judis argued in the National Journal that, despite conventional wisdom that demographic trends would continue to deepen the Democratic claim to electoral majorities, an “Emerging Republican Advantage” is putting the House out of reach and could flip the White House in 2016.
While he makes no firm predictions, Judis believes that Democratic erosion among blue-collar lower-income whites and office-dwelling middle-income whites will undercut expected gains among minority and youth voters, who still vote Democratic but have displayed a decline in enthusiasm. Judis points to long-standing skepticism within the two white constituencies toward active government and taxes, leading them to view Obamacare and the stimulus as redistributive programs that take from them and give to others.
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